Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | ORE +138 CONN -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +24 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -8.7 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -4.6 (-19.4) | 136.6 (+5.4) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -5.7 (-18.3) | 134.4 (+7.6) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -4.7 (-19.3) | 138.5 (+3.5) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -4.8 (-19.2) | 138.0 (+4.0) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 31-8 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#69) | 15.3 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#201) | 1.76 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#153) | 2.77 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#216) | 0.578 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 51.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.3% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 58.7% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 39.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 79.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.7% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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