Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | VAL +400 SDST -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +11 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -10.4 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (-34.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -4.4 (-6.6) | 145.4 (-34.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -8.0 (-3.0) | 142.0 (-31.0) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -5.8 (-5.2) | 142.8 (-31.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -6.1 (-4.9) | 143.1 (-32.1) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-7 | 10-2 |
| Away | 2-12 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#312) | 2.5 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#253) | 0.79 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#261) | 0.67 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#286) | 0.558 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 3.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 25.3% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 12.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 34.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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