Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | MTST +110 UNCG -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +11 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -8.6 (-19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -4.9 (-15.9) | 129.2 (+13.8) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -5.3 (-16.3) | 128.5 (+14.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -4.7 (-15.7) | 132.2 (+10.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -5.3 (-16.3) | 132.9 (+10.1) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 10-5 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#116) | -5.5 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#108) | -0.21 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#107) | -0.24 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#158) | 0.546 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 26.0% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.8% | 13.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.