Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | USA -400 EVAN +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +11 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | USA -10.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.1 (+19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -5.2 (+5.8) | 134.3 (+10.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -7.2 (+3.8) | 133.1 (+11.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -5.8 (+5.2) | 131.1 (+13.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -5.5 (+5.5) | 130.2 (+14.8) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 1-19 |
| Home | 10-4 | 3-10 |
| Away | 4-10 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#84) | -5.3 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#282) | -1.39 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#260) | -2.30 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#133) | 0.437 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 34.8% |
| 3PT% | 23.0% | 23.9% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 39.1% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 20.2% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 12.2% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 62.2% | 78.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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