Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | MOST -200 UNCW +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +14 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -12.4 (-26.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -7.3 (-21.3) | 127.4 (-5.4) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -8.1 (-22.1) | 127.3 (-5.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -7.5 (-21.5) | 130.9 (-8.9) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -8.1 (-22.1) | 131.8 (-9.8) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.7 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#61) | -4.6 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#233) | -0.55 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#215) | -0.44 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#237) | 0.564 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 31.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 17.3% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 0.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 34.4% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 13.7% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 58.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 36.9% |
Game Analysis
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