Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -250 LT +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +3 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -14.1 (-17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (+17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -15.1 (-18.1) | 143.4 (+11.6) | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -9.4 (-12.4) | 142.0 (+13.0) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -12.9 (-15.9) | 142.3 (+12.7) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -13.9 (-16.9) | 142.4 (+12.6) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#48) | 1.9 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#95) | -0.05 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#115) | -0.59 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#175) | 0.493 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 33.7% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.5% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 25.1% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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