Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUB -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | ALCN +110 CSUB -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +8 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | CSUB -2.7 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUB -3.7 (+11.7) | 129.0 (-13.0) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUB -1.7 (+9.7) | 127.6 (-11.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUB -1.3 (+9.3) | 127.9 (-11.9) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSUB -1.5 (+9.5) | 129.4 (-13.4) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-14 |
| Home | 7-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 10-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 59.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#138) | 4.9 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#35) | 1.85 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.85 (#31) | 4.20 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.675 (#22) | 0.559 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 14.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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