Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | DEP +145 TA&M -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +16 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | DEP -8.4 (-24.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -3.4 (-19.4) | 143.6 (+4.4) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -5.1 (-21.1) | 146.4 (+1.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEP -4.9 (-20.9) | 147.9 (+0.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -5.9 (-21.9) | 149.0 (-1.0) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2023 | TA&M 89 – 64 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 15-3 |
| Home | 7-8 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-12 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#190) | -1.7 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#172) | -0.23 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#165) | 0.07 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#141) | 0.411 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 26.1% |
| DRB% | 64.0% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 35.2% |
Game Analysis
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