Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | OHIO -1600 EIU +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +11 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -17.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (+17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -11.7 (-0.7) | 135.8 (+9.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -15.5 (-4.5) | 137.3 (+7.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -11.8 (-0.8) | 134.8 (+10.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -12.2 (-1.2) | 133.9 (+11.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-1 | 6-9 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#124) | -7.3 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#209) | -3.69 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#191) | -6.02 (#360) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#255) | 0.345 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 31.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 21.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 34.1% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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