Betting Lines
| Spread | EWU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | EWU -275 STBK +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EWU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EWU +29 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | EWU -7.3 (+21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EWU -6.5 (+22.5) | 131.1 (+1.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EWU -5.5 (+23.5) | 132.8 (+0.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EWU -5.4 (+23.6) | 129.8 (+3.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EWU -5.7 (+23.3) | 129.5 (+3.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EWU | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-1 | 7-7 |
| Away | 10-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#309) | -15.1 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#265) | -2.73 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#256) | -4.23 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#254) | 0.229 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EWU | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 34.5% |
| 3PT% | 25.5% | 23.3% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 40.4% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 14.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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