Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | TOW -450 FAIR +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +5 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -11.0 (-16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.8 (+20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -7.8 (-12.8) | 128.9 (+14.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -8.5 (-13.5) | 125.7 (+17.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -7.3 (-12.3) | 130.9 (+12.1) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -7.8 (-12.8) | 130.4 (+12.6) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-2 | 7-6 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#70) | -4.4 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.80 (#1) | -1.86 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.25 (#1) | -2.84 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.672 (#24) | 0.342 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 20.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 57.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 32.5% |
Game Analysis
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