Betting Lines
| Spread | ULM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | OMA +120 ULM -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OMA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OMA +7 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | OMA -9.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (-26.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OMA -6.4 (+0.6) | 143.4 (-24.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OMA -4.6 (+2.4) | 140.0 (-21.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OMA -5.8 (+1.2) | 142.6 (-23.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OMA -5.6 (+1.4) | 142.2 (-23.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OMA | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-7 | 7-8 |
| Away | 1-15 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 63.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#311) | -17.5 (#361) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#307) | -1.91 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.79 (#304) | -3.07 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#291) | 0.322 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OMA | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 31.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 36.4% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 58.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 63.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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