Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | ISU +230 UNC -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -1.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -1.6 (+3.4) | 143.8 (-8.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -2.7 (+2.3) | 144.0 (-9.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -0.9 (+4.1) | 141.2 (-6.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -1.5 (+3.5) | 139.9 (-4.9) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.6 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#30) | 9.3 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#98) | 3.11 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#114) | 4.77 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#215) | 0.696 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 15.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 40.1% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 35.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 32.5% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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