Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | SBU +188 ND -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +12 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | ND -1.1 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (-29.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -1.6 (+13.6) | 144.2 (-30.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -0.3 (+11.7) | 140.1 (-26.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -1.1 (+13.1) | 143.3 (-29.3) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ND -1.4 (+13.4) | 144.6 (-30.6) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-17 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-8 |
| Away | 2-11 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#160) | 2.2 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#227) | 2.10 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#209) | 2.65 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#273) | 0.657 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 51.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 5.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 60.1% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 18.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 12.1% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 11.8% |
Game Analysis
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