Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | L-MD +138 SOU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +18 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -12.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -7.5 (-10.5) | 138.8 (-4.8) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -7.6 (-10.4) | 136.8 (-2.8) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -7.2 (-10.8) | 139.6 (-5.6) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -7.8 (-10.2) | 139.4 (-5.4) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-2 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#324) | 3.8 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#262) | 0.67 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#265) | 1.01 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#231) | 0.617 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 21.1% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.7% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 24.7% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 48.0% |
Game Analysis
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