Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MD -4000 COPP +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +16 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | MD -23.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (+22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -21.5 (-5.5) | 157.6 (+16.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -19.2 (-3.2) | 151.0 (+23.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -21.5 (-5.5) | 151.2 (+22.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -22.2 (-6.2) | 151.9 (+22.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 3, 2025 | MD 83 – 61 COPP |
| Dec 29, 2023 | MD 75 – 53 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 4-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 4-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-16 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.5 | 83.2 |
| Massey | 14.9 (#15) | -1.4 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#11) | 0.75 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.46 (#8) | 0.76 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.808 (#1) | 0.585 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.0% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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