Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -27.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | GONZ -5000 PRST +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +24 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -3.8 (+20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -1.6 (+22.4) | 162.7 (+17.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -6.5 (+17.5) | 161.8 (+18.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -4.4 (+19.6) | 159.4 (+20.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -3.6 (+20.4) | 162.2 (+17.8) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 6-11 |
| Home | 15-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 7-2 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.2 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 78.2 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#25) | 8.0 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#46) | 1.11 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.27 (#49) | 2.04 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.710 (#7) | 0.601 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.5% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.0% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 54.8% |
Game Analysis
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