Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | XAV +150 DUKE -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +7 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -4.6 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -5.1 (-1.9) | 141.2 (-6.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -5.0 (-2.0) | 137.6 (-2.6) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -3.7 (-3.3) | 141.0 (-6.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -2.7 (-4.3) | 141.7 (-6.7) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-0 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#64) | 12.1 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#110) | 1.88 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#90) | 3.93 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#132) | 0.596 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.1% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 45.7% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 45.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 17.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.4% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 46.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 79.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 11.3% |
Game Analysis
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