Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -275 PORT +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PORT +12 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | PORT -2.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PORT -1.7 (-10.3) | 144.0 (+10.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PORT -0.2 (-11.8) | 142.6 (+11.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PORT -2.2 (-9.8) | 145.3 (+8.7) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PORT -1.9 (-10.1) | 146.1 (+7.9) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 5-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#107) | 5.6 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#266) | 0.78 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#240) | 1.59 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#241) | 0.556 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 36.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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