Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -700 WASH +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WASH +4 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -17.8 (-21.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -11.5 (-15.5) | 129.1 (+2.9) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -11.8 (-15.8) | 127.5 (+4.5) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -10.6 (-14.6) | 129.4 (+2.6) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -11.5 (-15.5) | 127.2 (+4.8) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 8-12 |
| Home | 16-2 | 12-6 |
| Away | 6-2 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.0 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#18) | -4.4 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.34 (#13) | -1.00 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.44 (#9) | -2.42 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.707 (#8) | 0.439 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 42.2% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 82.6% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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