Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UVM -188 BALL +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +5 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -6.2 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -2.6 (+7.6) | 138.5 (+12.5) | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -2.5 (+7.5) | 135.2 (+15.8) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -4.4 (+9.4) | 137.7 (+13.3) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -4.1 (+9.1) | 138.9 (+12.1) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 9-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#233) | 3.2 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#260) | 0.95 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#228) | 1.34 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#203) | 0.556 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 29.3 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 4.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 24.8% |
| ORB% | 14.1% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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