Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | USF -700 SFBK +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +15 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | USF -16.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -9.4 (+5.6) | 126.8 (+8.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | USF -9.9 (+5.1) | 127.9 (+7.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | USF -9.9 (+5.1) | 129.2 (+5.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -9.9 (+5.1) | 129.7 (+5.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 9-9 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#232) | -12.7 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.24 (#327) | -0.32 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.68 (#302) | -1.22 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#256) | 0.517 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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