Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | MISS -1000 SIE +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +12 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -5.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -5.0 (+7.0) | 139.5 (-3.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -6.0 (+6.0) | 137.5 (-1.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -4.2 (+7.8) | 140.7 (-4.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -3.8 (+8.2) | 141.2 (-5.2) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 11-9 |
| Home | 7-10 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#92) | -1.0 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.91 (#18) | -1.66 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.74 (#16) | -2.34 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.647 (#34) | 0.380 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 41.3% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 41.9% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 78.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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