Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 117.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -450 SJSU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +15 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -2.1 (+17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -2.5 (+17.5) | 122.2 (+0.8) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -0.2 (+15.2) | 123.5 (-0.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -2.1 (+17.1) | 126.3 (-3.3) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -2.8 (+17.8) | 128.7 (-5.7) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-7 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 10-3 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.3 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#262) | -2.7 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#179) | 1.18 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#176) | 1.79 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#155) | 0.523 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 28.9% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 37.1% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 11.6% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 79.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.7% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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