Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | SIE +280 FSU -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIE +17 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | SIE -1.2 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIE -0.1 (+16.9) | 145.2 (-2.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIE -0.4 (+16.6) | 140.9 (+2.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIE -0.6 (+16.4) | 142.4 (+0.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIE -0.6 (+16.4) | 143.2 (-0.2) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIE | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-13 |
| Home | 8-5 | 5-11 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#241) | -5.0 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.23 (#331) | -2.21 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.89 (#337) | -2.62 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.338 (#338) | 0.429 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIE | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 41.5% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 80.8% | 61.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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