Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +3 | 101 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -8.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 115.4 (-14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -3.2 (-0.2) | 125.4 (-24.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -6.0 (-3.0) | 122.7 (-21.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -4.4 (-1.4) | 122.9 (-21.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -4.2 (-1.2) | 123.1 (-22.1) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2025 | MSST 82 – 74 UTAH |
| Nov 17, 2024 | MSST 78 – 73 UTAH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 12-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 63.8 |
| Massey | 16.5 (#7) | 8.3 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.27 (#11) | 1.80 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.33 (#9) | 3.93 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.690 (#18) | 0.576 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 42.4 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 41.0% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 14.9% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.6% | 38.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.2% | 13.5% |
Game Analysis
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