Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MSST -310 UTAH +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +5 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -1.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -1.0 (+4.0) | 156.2 (-5.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -1.4 (+3.6) | 153.7 (-2.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -0.1 (+4.9) | 151.7 (-0.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -1.1 (+3.9) | 157.9 (-6.9) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2025 | MSST 82 – 74 UTAH |
| Nov 24, 2022 | MSST 52 – 49 UTAH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 15-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#22) | 11.7 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#127) | 1.08 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#146) | 1.61 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#224) | 0.551 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.8% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 44.1% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 46.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 2.07 | 1.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.6% | 63.4% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 38.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.3% | 40.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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