Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | DEN -150 CIT +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -4.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -2.7 (+0.3) | 140.5 (+4.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -3.1 (-0.1) | 137.1 (+7.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -3.2 (-0.2) | 140.5 (+4.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -3.1 (-0.1) | 142.4 (+2.6) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-5 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#198) | -5.9 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#202) | -0.04 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#222) | -0.62 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.359 (#319) | 0.456 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.0% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 19.0% |
| FT Rate | 36.9% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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