Betting Lines
| Spread | UTEP -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | UTEP -450 CSUB +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTEP +1 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UTEP -7.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTEP -5.3 (-4.3) | 131.1 (+3.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTEP -6.3 (-5.3) | 129.8 (+5.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTEP -5.0 (-4.0) | 128.3 (+6.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTEP -5.9 (-4.9) | 128.5 (+6.5) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTEP | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-7 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 59.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#98) | 3.8 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#60) | 2.21 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.56 (#40) | 4.47 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.692 (#16) | 0.585 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTEP | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 19.6% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 12.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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