Betting Lines
| Spread | PRIN -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | ARMY +450 PRIN -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRIN +8 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | PRIN -12.9 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (-17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRIN -11.0 (+3.0) | 149.4 (-9.4) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -11.4 (+3.4) | 146.1 (-6.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRIN -9.0 (+1.0) | 151.1 (-11.1) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRIN -9.9 (+1.9) | 151.1 (-11.1) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 23-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-4 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#278) | 7.0 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#311) | 0.93 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.90 (#338) | 1.44 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.334 (#340) | 0.550 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 4.8 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 58.3% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 16.4% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.1% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 80.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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