Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU +110 ARK -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +4 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -0.7 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -1.0 (-5.0) | 144.9 (+7.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -0.2 (-4.2) | 141.4 (+10.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -0.7 (-4.7) | 141.9 (+10.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -0.1 (-4.1) | 142.0 (+10.0) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#37) | 9.4 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#17) | 0.95 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.23 (#21) | 1.57 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.770 (#2) | 0.563 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 27.3% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 79.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 31.9% |
Game Analysis
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