Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | ORST +1400 DUKE -10000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +3 | 105 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -21.1 (+18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.3 (-13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -16.9 (+13.9) | 127.9 (-22.9) | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -17.7 (+14.7) | 125.1 (-20.1) | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -13.6 (+10.6) | 128.3 (-23.3) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -14.7 (+11.7) | 127.7 (-22.7) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-7 | 16-0 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.5 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 63.6 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#284) | 15.1 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#242) | 1.40 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#223) | 3.53 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.345 (#334) | 0.576 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 25.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 45.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 16.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 45.9% |
| FT Rate | 35.3% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 42.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 78.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 9.2% |
Game Analysis
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