Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU +150 DAY -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +12 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -5.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -3.3 (+8.7) | 140.4 (-0.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -2.1 (+9.9) | 135.9 (+4.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -3.6 (+8.4) | 135.3 (+4.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -2.9 (+9.1) | 136.4 (+3.6) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 61.0 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#52) | 3.2 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#109) | 0.34 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#91) | 0.96 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#118) | 0.547 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 37.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 79.4% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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