Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV -138 MINN +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +9 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -12.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -8.8 (+0.2) | 127.6 (+5.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -8.1 (+0.9) | 131.2 (+1.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -7.7 (+1.3) | 128.7 (+4.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -8.0 (+1.0) | 128.7 (+4.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 2-17 |
| Home | 9-7 | 6-11 |
| Away | 5-5 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#84) | -6.8 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#24) | -0.29 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#46) | -1.59 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.687 (#19) | 0.520 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 43.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 32.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 63.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.8% | 8.4% |
Game Analysis
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