Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -2500 MRMK +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +14 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -14.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -13.6 (+0.4) | 137.9 (-9.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -15.7 (-1.7) | 138.4 (-10.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -11.7 (+2.3) | 140.0 (-12.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -11.8 (+2.2) | 140.3 (-12.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-4 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L4 | W11 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 61.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 64.0 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#178) | -7.4 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#221) | -1.58 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#207) | -2.38 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#231) | 0.431 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 23.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 17.1% |
| FT Rate | 32.9% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 26.9% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 57.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.