Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | STAN +100 MISS -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +4 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | MISS -2.2 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -2.3 (-1.7) | 134.3 (+5.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -3.0 (-1.0) | 130.4 (+9.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -2.0 (-2.0) | 137.1 (+2.9) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -1.9 (-2.1) | 136.6 (+3.4) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 3-15 |
| Home | 9-6 | 7-10 |
| Away | 2-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#143) | 4.3 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#204) | 2.89 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#188) | 4.83 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#175) | 0.645 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 45.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 81.0% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 13.2% |
Game Analysis
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