Betting Lines
| Spread | BTLR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | BYU +105 BTLR -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BYU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +5 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | BTLR -15.1 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BTLR -13.4 (+8.4) | 144.4 (+0.6) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BTLR -8.4 (+3.4) | 142.9 (+2.1) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BTLR -11.6 (+6.6) | 141.4 (+3.6) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BTLR -11.5 (+6.5) | 141.8 (+3.2) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BYU | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#174) | 15.3 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#219) | 0.57 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#234) | 0.92 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#135) | 0.533 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BYU | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 53.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 42.4 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| TOV% | 25.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 26.1% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 81.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 9.0% |
Game Analysis
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