Betting Lines
| Spread | WASH -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WASH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WASH +5 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | WASH -1.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WASH -3.4 (+1.6) | 129.2 (-10.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WASH -2.5 (+2.5) | 125.2 (-6.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WASH -2.1 (+2.9) | 130.4 (-11.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WASH -1.9 (+3.1) | 130.0 (-11.0) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WASH | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 66.0 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#266) | -6.5 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#266) | -2.17 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.63 (#301) | -3.13 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#234) | 0.307 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WASH | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 19.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 43.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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