Betting Lines
| Spread | NE -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | NE -163 MAN +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NE +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | MAN -6.1 (+8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -1.7 (+3.7) | 137.1 (-1.1) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -3.0 (+5.0) | 138.2 (-2.2) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -3.2 (+5.2) | 137.7 (-1.7) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -3.2 (+5.2) | 136.7 (-0.7) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NE | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 6-6 | 5-9 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#325) | -3.3 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.40 (#338) | -1.74 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.05 (#320) | -2.63 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#296) | 0.257 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NE | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 30.5% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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