You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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56–23 on winners spread MAE 9.4 79 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Carolina State @ Queens University +14.9 150.9 90% 78–102 ✓
Missouri State @ Xavier +18.5 149.1 89% 57–75 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ North Carolina A&T +8.9 132.2 83% 79–82 ✓
Texas @ UConn +11.5 139.6 86% 63–71 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Austin Peay -1.6 138.2 41% 75–76 ✗
East Texas A&M @ McNeese +19.8 137.2 89% 66–102 ✓
California Baptist @ Eastern Washington -5.3 149.3 26% 88–83 ✓
Michigan State @ Penn State -7.9 135.0 20% 76–72 ✓
Texas Tech @ Arkansas +0.5 152.0 41% 86–93 ✓
Iona @ St. John's +23.5 163.4 91% 64–91 ✓
UAlbany @ Florida Atlantic +15.8 146.5 88% 79–105 ✓
Massachusetts @ Florida State +7.2 149.9 79% 103–95 ✗
DePaul @ Wichita State +10.9 138.3 84% 61–58 ✗
Central Michigan @ Stony Brook +9.0 145.7 82% 55–78 ✓
UL Monroe @ Miami +25.2 155.4 91% 79–104 ✓
Old Dominion @ George Mason +17.8 143.6 89% 61–73 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Elon +12.4 147.1 88% 79–85 ✓
Toledo @ Robert Morris +4.0 143.5 71% 70–75 ✓
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State +3.6 159.7 60% 85–76 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Delaware +3.1 145.3 59% 88–66 ✗
Marquette @ Purdue +17.6 151.0 90% 59–79 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ North Carolina +23.2 149.9 90% 62–80 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ UNC Asheville +0.9 142.9 49% 80–59 ✗
Western Illinois @ North Dakota +7.7 139.2 81% 69–66 ✗
North Dakota State @ Drake +5.5 143.8 66% 99–94 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Georgia State -3.1 136.8 36% 73–77 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Utah Valley +6.7 144.1 79% 53–68 ✓
Jackson State @ Northwestern +25.4 140.8 91% 53–93 ✓
Boston University @ Dartmouth +4.2 142.6 67% 64–77 ✓
Sacred Heart @ NJIT -1.2 149.5 38% 65–49 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Bellarmine -5.0 146.1 30% 80–76 ✓
Providence @ Butler +9.5 163.7 82% 110–113 ✓
Manhattan @ Fordham +8.3 140.9 80% 53–82 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Quinnipiac +12.6 153.2 87% 71–75 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Davidson +12.2 131.8 85% 47–80 ✓
Cincinnati @ Georgia +15.4 159.0 87% 65–84 ✓
Evansville @ Notre Dame +17.2 140.4 89% 58–82 ✓
Canisius @ Maine +8.9 125.7 83% 70–43 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ South Dakota +6.0 158.8 83% 85–97 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Georgetown +14.1 139.4 86% 68–76 ✓
George Washington @ Florida +9.4 153.5 81% 70–80 ✓
New Orleans @ Houston +24.8 140.4 91% 57–99 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Eastern Kentucky -5.6 157.1 29% 79–69 ✓
Tulsa @ New Mexico State -3.2 142.3 42% 83–70 ✓
Hampton @ Howard -3.8 136.0 30% 57–61 ✗
Southern Miss @ Ole Miss +9.1 139.1 81% 67–71 ✓
Delaware State @ Longwood +9.8 138.1 86% 81–76 ✗
Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech +12.5 130.1 82% 44–65 ✓
Arkansas State @ Rice -1.8 150.0 42% 76–77 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Valparaiso -2.9 134.2 34% 73–70 ✓
Kansas State @ Creighton +3.4 150.3 71% 83–76 ✗
Mercer @ Clemson +22.4 154.6 89% 63–70 ✓
Memphis @ Louisville +15.0 157.2 88% 73–99 ✓
Nebraska @ Illinois +9.6 156.5 77% 83–80 ✗
UIC @ Belmont +14.1 147.6 86% 84–87 ✓
UC Davis @ Oregon +6.0 140.8 75% 62–104 ✓
Wright State @ Marshall +4.1 145.7 66% 74–76 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Denver +5.2 158.0 77% 105–86 ✗
Murray State @ Akron +10.3 169.5 82% 115–100 ✗
UTSA @ Colorado +18.8 151.8 90% 64–88 ✓
Hofstra @ Syracuse +6.8 138.9 77% 70–69 ✗
Marist @ Bryant +0.1 128.7 34% 82–74 ✗
Niagara @ Morgan State +1.9 131.4 64% 73–81 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Binghamton -8.0 140.0 24% 84–67 ✓
La Salle @ Long Island University +4.1 142.0 59% 60–70 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Villanova +11.6 135.8 85% 61–79 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Houston Christian +4.6 132.8 57% 74–71 ✗
Chattanooga @ Auburn +17.6 151.4 90% 78–92 ✓
Montana State @ Oregon State +1.1 142.6 61% 57–67 ✓
Northwestern State @ California +18.3 146.3 91% 70–79 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Ohio -5.8 144.2 29% 83–88 ✗
Illinois State @ Utah State +6.0 141.1 74% 78–83 ✓
Kansas @ NC State +2.4 145.4 60% 77–76 ✗
Northern Arizona @ San Diego +2.0 143.4 63% 69–78 ✓
Southern Utah @ Washington +22.3 150.0 91% 69–105 ✓
Oakland @ Northern Iowa +9.0 146.2 77% 63–75 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Richmond +6.0 154.8 76% 84–93 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Loyola Maryland +1.7 144.2 58% 81–73 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Vanderbilt +27.8 154.9 90% 72–83 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.