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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
29–14 on winners
spread MAE 8.8
43 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+24.0 | 147.6 | 90% | 55–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 153.8 | 57% | 91–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.1 | 146.9 | 66% | 82–79 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.0 | 142.8 | 35% | 86–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.2 | 157.0 | 91% | 61–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 150.7 | 72% | 60–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.9 | 156.6 | 23% | 101–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.1 | 138.9 | 83% | 59–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.3 | 133.8 | 86% | 61–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 137.7 | 76% | 88–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.3 | 146.8 | 86% | 75–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 155.8 | 66% | 77–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+21.4 | 149.7 | 91% | 53–100 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 171.8 | 47% | 96–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.4 | 141.0 | 66% | 70–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.3 | 152.8 | 77% | 63–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.0 | 156.1 | 50% | 82–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.6 | 151.5 | 86% | 75–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.2 | 141.4 | 88% | 72–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.2 | 146.6 | 87% | 67–93 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.4 | 131.4 | 86% | 61–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.4 | 143.7 | 90% | 53–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.9 | 146.6 | 90% | 67–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+27.8 | 145.9 | 91% | 53–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.4 | 142.7 | 90% | 53–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.8 | 139.7 | 37% | 70–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+21.8 | 144.4 | 90% | 60–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.0 | 139.1 | 80% | 59–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.5 | 140.0 | 18% | 78–86 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.8 | 146.5 | 61% | 65–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.4 | 138.9 | 81% | 64–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.4 | 150.7 | 66% | 70–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.7 | 153.2 | 89% | 77–107 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.7 | 154.8 | 82% | 86–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+22.7 | 133.6 | 90% | 51–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.9 | 160.1 | 88% | 59–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.4 | 135.3 | 70% | 67–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.9 | 161.2 | 32% | 78–88 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.5 | 159.6 | 89% | 73–111 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 152.2 | 80% | 77–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.0 | 135.9 | 83% | 84–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.0 | 134.5 | 68% | 58–57 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.3 | 137.7 | 53% | 67–68 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.