Hmm, you're so pretty, not to talk to you would be a crime. "Baby, Baby" - The Vibrators
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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68–19 on winners spread MAE 10.3 87 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Alabama @ Purdue +5.2 150.2 73% 78–87 ✓
Nicholls @ Cincinnati +21.0 145.4 89% 49–86 ✓
Elon @ Gardner-Webb +10.5 149.8 80% 79–80 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Old Dominion +2.0 155.3 46% 71–73 ✓
Tulane @ Furman +7.3 142.5 72% 67–75 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Charleston +5.3 162.6 72% 116–119 ✓
Belmont @ Air Force -2.4 133.8 50% 79–71 ✓
Lindenwood @ Robert Morris +14.0 144.8 86% 53–67 ✓
Maine @ Quinnipiac +1.1 148.6 55% 55–58 ✓
West Georgia @ South Florida +7.7 148.3 77% 55–74 ✓
Army @ Marist +7.2 146.1 80% 88–91 ✓
New Hampshire @ Brown +13.0 139.3 84% 58–76 ✓
UAB @ High Point +15.0 148.9 86% 65–68 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ South Carolina Upstate -0.1 161.7 52% 89–85 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Princeton +7.4 149.6 71% 73–68 ✗
Fordham @ Manhattan +0.5 136.2 36% 76–78 ✓
Temple @ Boston College -2.2 143.9 41% 69–72 ✗
Vermont @ Iona +3.2 134.5 70% 59–62 ✓
SMU @ Butler +1.7 150.6 48% 70–81 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Georgia Southern +6.1 146.7 72% 75–80 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Penn State +12.1 145.7 83% 64–86 ✓
American University @ North Carolina +11.9 140.2 80% 55–107 ✓
Marquette @ Maryland +9.1 132.2 64% 78–74 ✗
Ohio @ Memphis +16.9 152.2 86% 70–94 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Northwestern +32.7 148.7 91% 58–67 ✓
Georgia @ Georgia Tech +2.9 157.2 56% 77–69 ✗
West Virginia @ Pittsburgh +12.6 143.5 83% 62–86 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Pennsylvania +4.9 138.5 68% 86–69 ✗
Washington State @ Iowa +1.7 156.4 47% 66–76 ✓
Samford @ North Alabama +18.5 148.6 81% 97–96 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Gonzaga +22.9 157.8 87% 54–113 ✓
Arizona @ Wisconsin +1.9 144.7 59% 88–103 ✓
Ohio State @ Texas A&M +6.4 137.0 65% 64–78 ✓
Duquesne @ DePaul +23.9 145.9 84% 58–84 ✓
Long Island University @ California Baptist +6.7 140.3 74% 77–90 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Oregon State +20.9 133.7 89% 51–70 ✓
Lehigh @ UCLA +23.9 132.4 89% 45–85 ✓
NJIT @ Morgan State +12.4 136.0 88% 69–81 ✓
Presbyterian @ Kennesaw State +5.3 151.2 74% 67–85 ✓
Wofford @ Duke +25.8 144.9 90% 35–86 ✓
Charleston Southern @ VMI +7.2 141.1 80% 69–80 ✓
Lafayette @ Cornell +8.1 146.4 76% 71–81 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Columbia +9.2 138.2 77% 63–77 ✓
Richmond @ Bucknell +13.6 140.7 83% 76–80 ✓
Wagner @ Seton Hall +5.0 124.8 77% 28–54 ✓
Wake Forest @ Xavier +7.8 143.7 72% 60–75 ✓
Youngstown State @ Syracuse +1.7 139.4 57% 95–104 ✓
Dartmouth @ Boston University +3.8 142.1 63% 50–78 ✓
UT Martin @ Longwood +9.5 141.2 79% 62–64 ✓
Notre Dame @ Georgetown +5.5 150.0 66% 84–63 ✗
Tulsa @ Missouri State +2.1 147.6 61% 106–111 ✓
Radford @ Evansville +6.7 146.7 78% 92–81 ✗
Saint Peter's @ UMBC +2.9 146.0 43% 69–61 ✗
South Carolina State @ Bethune-Cookman +5.2 141.4 70% 62–75 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Western Illinois +6.2 133.7 76% 61–63 ✓
Indiana State @ Ball State +14.6 142.8 83% 94–84 ✗
Stetson @ Oklahoma +23.9 141.4 89% 64–85 ✓
La Salle @ Drexel +5.6 133.8 71% 71–68 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Tennessee Tech +1.7 150.7 59% 83–58 ✗
South Carolina @ Indiana +10.6 138.2 79% 71–87 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Arkansas State +12.4 139.9 85% 49–59 ✓
Northwestern State @ Rice +6.1 133.9 80% 75–77 ✓
Jackson State @ Vanderbilt +30.8 148.4 91% 81–94 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Cleveland State -1.4 134.2 46% 63–71 ✗
Idaho State @ San Diego +0.6 129.5 60% 78–66 ✗
Idaho @ BYU +26.7 149.6 90% 71–95 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Canisius -4.5 143.3 32% 76–58 ✓
Texas State @ Abilene Christian -9.0 133.9 22% 60–72 ✗
Colorado State @ Ole Miss +3.4 138.5 62% 69–84 ✓
Mercer @ South Alabama +13.5 138.0 87% 66–75 ✓
Murray State @ Middle Tennessee +18.6 140.9 87% 88–67 ✗
Toledo @ Detroit Mercy -4.8 154.2 40% 82–67 ✓
Le Moyne @ St. Bonaventure +26.7 150.9 91% 52–71 ✓
George Mason @ East Carolina +0.1 133.4 46% 77–78 ✓
Little Rock @ UTSA +7.8 144.4 76% 81–64 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Incarnate Word +12.9 155.6 88% 64–92 ✓
Yale @ Minnesota +4.8 137.9 63% 56–59 ✓
New Hampshire @ Sacred Heart +4.1 146.3 69% 63–80 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Davidson +16.5 156.1 84% 70–76 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Winthrop +5.6 147.9 75% 89–87 ✗
Green Bay @ Providence +12.4 140.0 82% 65–79 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas +41.0 146.7 91% 43–89 ✓
Portland @ Long Beach State +11.3 143.4 85% 63–61 ✗
Oakland @ Kansas +23.7 134.9 88% 57–78 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Northeastern +0.5 138.6 63% 62–80 ✓
Bowling Green @ Michigan State +21.8 143.9 87% 72–86 ✓
Liberty @ Florida Atlantic +2.7 152.0 63% 74–77 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.