Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -1800 GB +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +14 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -10.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -12.1 (+1.9) | 140.5 (+3.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -12.4 (+1.6) | 140.0 (+4.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -10.6 (+3.4) | 140.5 (+3.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -12.8 (+1.2) | 143.2 (+0.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 2-18 |
| Home | 10-6 | 3-11 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#130) | -0.2 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#31) | 0.18 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#33) | 0.40 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#38) | 0.457 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | GB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 28.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 26.2% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 34.7% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 59.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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