He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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15–11 on winners spread MAE 12.9 26 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Coppin State @ UMBC +6.3 130.4 51% 67–92 ✓
Stonehill @ Robert Morris +8.7 144.3 81% 51–63 ✓
South Carolina State @ Jacksonville +8.3 142.0 75% 62–71 ✓
Bryant @ Buffalo +10.5 155.1 78% 87–64 ✗
Nicholls @ Northern Kentucky +3.8 134.9 36% 61–59 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Wichita State +19.3 153.0 87% 73–79 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Missouri +17.1 140.4 88% 39–111 ✓
Morehead State @ Chattanooga +11.4 134.3 84% 62–76 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Oklahoma State +18.0 150.5 84% 78–85 ✓
Northern Colorado @ South Dakota State +0.8 152.9 54% 78–69 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Arizona State +5.6 142.3 78% 76–87 ✓
LSU @ Kansas State +6.0 144.6 67% 76–65 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ New Mexico State +20.0 146.8 89% 82–83 ✓
Seattle U @ Cal Poly +7.3 152.4 73% 71–75 ✓
Omaha @ UNLV +3.3 151.9 69% 69–80 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Pacific +11.6 144.6 84% 60–57 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Charleston Southern +0.4 151.3 42% 86–76 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ VMI +3.0 141.9 69% 72–71 ✗
New Orleans @ Stonehill -0.8 139.0 32% 54–80 ✗
Holy Cross @ Sacred Heart -1.0 147.0 53% 82–75 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Western Michigan +5.3 139.2 68% 79–60 ✗
William & Mary @ Winthrop +10.8 139.3 82% 85–86 ✓
Virginia @ Villanova +0.6 138.0 56% 70–60 ✗
Florida @ Florida State +0.8 142.6 50% 87–74 ✗
TCU @ Michigan +7.2 146.1 73% 64–76 ✓
Monmouth @ Rutgers +22.0 143.6 89% 81–98 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.