Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -300 W&M +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +1 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -15.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -9.2 (-8.2) | 140.0 (+31.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -10.8 (-9.8) | 139.3 (+31.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -9.4 (-8.4) | 140.1 (+30.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -8.4 (-7.4) | 148.7 (+22.3) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 78.5 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#119) | -3.1 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#178) | 0.19 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#177) | 0.39 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#232) | 0.646 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 23.7% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 41.6% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.5% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 36.8% |
Game Analysis
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