Betting Lines
| Spread | BRY -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | BUF +200 BRY -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRY +23 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -15.3 (-38.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -10.6 (-33.6) | 157.5 (-6.5) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -10.5 (-33.5) | 155.1 (-4.1) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -8.4 (-31.4) | 153.9 (-2.9) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 14-2 |
| Home | 6-9 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#181) | -6.2 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#99) | -1.57 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#123) | -1.98 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#142) | 0.562 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 40.9% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 27.9% |
| ORB% | 17.8% | 43.2% |
| FT Rate | 11.8% | 46.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 59.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 32.9% |
Game Analysis
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