Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | NKU -280 NICH +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NICH +2 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | NKU -6.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -3.4 (-5.4) | 137.4 (-17.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -3.8 (-5.8) | 134.9 (-14.9) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -3.2 (-5.2) | 134.4 (-14.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -3.5 (-5.5) | 139.3 (-19.3) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#264) | -1.4 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#226) | -3.37 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#222) | -5.05 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#122) | 0.347 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.0% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 23.5% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.6% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 25.3% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 12.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 42.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 8.7% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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