Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | NMSU -195 AMCC +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +1 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -21.1 (-20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -16.3 (-15.3) | 144.3 (+20.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -20.0 (-19.0) | 146.8 (+18.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -16.8 (-15.8) | 150.2 (+14.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#58) | -5.4 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#43) | -0.72 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#40) | -0.78 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#176) | 0.562 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 51.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 41.7% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.3% | 63.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 8.7% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 35.9% |
Game Analysis
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