Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -180 UVA +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +10 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -1.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (-17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -0.1 (-10.1) | 133.8 (-3.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -0.6 (-10.6) | 138.0 (-8.0) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -0.8 (-10.8) | 135.0 (-5.0) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -0.9 (-10.9) | 131.2 (-1.2) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#227) | -3.8 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#242) | 0.31 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#254) | 0.33 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#223) | 0.427 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 40.5% | 18.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 40.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 78.6% | 84.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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