Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | ECU +150 GMU -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +1 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -0.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -0.6 (+0.4) | 129.1 (+25.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -0.1 (+0.9) | 133.4 (+21.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -1.8 (-0.8) | 134.2 (+20.8) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2023 | GMU 81 – 59 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-6 | 18-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 64.0 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#251) | 4.0 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#136) | -0.04 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#144) | 1.00 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#75) | 0.464 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.3% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 21.1% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 41.8 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 37.3% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 6.9% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 38.3% |
| FT Rate | 49.0% | 39.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.7% | 41.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.1% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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